- The UK government has five Brexit options to choose from.
- Hard Brexit means leaving the EU completely, with no deals between the UK and the EU.
- Soft Brexit means coming to agreements with the EU about issues such as immigration and the single market.
What Brexit choice will the UK government choose? The divisiveness of the European referendum is still in full flow. Hard line Brexiteers are constantly calling for an immediate withdrawal of the UK from the EU. Those who voted for remain are still hoping and praying that a miracle will happen to prevent the break-up of the EU and possibly the UK.
What is not yet clear is the direction of the Brexit negotiations and how the government can reconcile taking back control of borders with still having access to the single market. In addition to that will they be able to please both sides? Cashfloat, a payday loans UK lender examines each Brexit choice and what it means for the people of the UK.
The Soft Options And Hard Brexit Choices That Face The UK
Theresa May is adamant that there is not a choice between hard and soft Brexit. Up until now she has merely reiterated that Brexit means Brexit. The new chancellor has also insisted that it is not a matter of choice and that the right Brexit for the UK is the only one that matters. He has not, however, been specific about what that could be.
Whichever way the negotiations go there is sure to be some impact on all those who live in the UK. Whether they are UK nationals or people who have migrated to our shores for a better life, Brexit will affect their day to day lives. It is important to have a look at the various options open to the government and try to understand what impact these would have on the lifestyle of ordinary people.
Brexit Choice One: A Complete Break With Europe
Most people who voted for leave would want a complete break away from the EU. Or is it? A complete break would mean no subsidies from the EU. It would also mean no further payments towards other countries. There would be a cessation of freedom of movement which means no person from another EU member state would be able to come to the UK without special permission via a holiday visa or a work permit.
The break could mean tariffs imposed on goods that the UK exports to the EU countries. However, the UK could also impose tariffs which mean that they could gather more revenue. The flip side would be the negative impact on car exporters in Germany who sell a lot of their wares to the country.
If a free trade deal is negotiated with the rest of the EU, it would mean checks at customs for imports. Unless there were a special arrangement with Europe, there would have to be a new border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
The service industry, of which the UK has a substantial amount, would suffer the most. Banks could lose their passporting rights to operate freely and sell financial products in other European countries. Many other aspects would cause massive disruption to the way of life for UK citizens.
Brexit Choice Two: Access to the single market
The UK could leave the EU and would have no sitting members of parliament. They would also have no say in any of the subsequent rules and laws that would be passed. There could still be access to the single market, but this would mean allowing freedom of movement. The UK would be expected to make an annual payment into the coffers of the EU budget.
If this were negotiated, the UK might expect some leeway about immigration numbers if the government cited exceptional circumstances such as an economic downturn. This scenario would be the least disruptive, but it is unlikely to be satisfying enough for hard Brexit fans who do not want to pay another penny to Europe.
Brexit Choice Three: A Compromise Deal For Brexit
In this instance the UK would leave the EU but, for a temporary period, would stay in the single market until the UK could reach an agreement over a long term trading deal. This would still cause problems for businesses but would help to soften the blow until other countries agree on new trade deals with the UK.
It is looking increasingly unlikely that the heads of the EU countries would go along with this deal. They want to keep unity within the EU and prevent other nations from searching for get-out clauses that do not conform to the status quo.
Brexit Choice Four: No Free Trade Agreements Before Brexit
Under the next option, the UK could leave the EU and the single market without having any free trade deal with the remainder of the EU countries. Businesses from the UK would have to trade within WTO rules which adds a tariff to all goods exported. Analysts have suggested that this would add up to a massive bill amounting to something like £4.5 billion in the initial stages.
If this occurred, the UK could also impose tariffs on European goods. This would help to increase tax revenues in the country. But, as tariffs on imports would also apply, it is thought that this would increase inflation. There would be instant price rises on all consumer goods.
At the moment the UK, as part of the EU, has free trade deals with 52 countries but this would stop as soon as we leave.
Brexit Choice Five: Leave The EU With No Trade Deals In Place
The final choice would be for the UK leave with no deals in place. The government could get rid of all import tariffs. There would be a vast increase in cheap goods flooding into the country. Prices for goods would decrease, but UK businesses would suffer as exports would still be subject to tariffs from the receiving country.
This is a scenario that would wreak a lot of harm on the economy as service industries, on which so many jobs depend a great deal, would probably jump ship and go to Europe. The subsequent loss of employment would be truly catastrophic for the economy of the UK.
What Brexit Choice Will The Government Choose?
If the government had its way, then everyone except the EU would get what they want. There would be access to the single market, a complete halt to immigration, withdrawal from the auspices of the European Court of Human Rights and the UK economy would soar.
This is a pipe dream that is highly unlikely to happen. Currently, the other members of the EU are getting very fed up of the subject of Brexit. The issue is causing a disruption to the normal running of the EU, and everyone wants to proceed with regular business. To this end, some leaders have asked that the UK get on with it as soon as possible. However, Mrs. May will not be rushed and while the government dithers the uncertainty within financial markets will remain.
The reality of the various options is that each and every one of them is going to cause problems for the country and almost certainly there will be an economic downturn.
Some people are now calling for a swift exit claiming that the quicker the deed is done, the sooner the country and citizens can begin to get on with their lives whatever that entails.